On Friday, Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to devise a plan that would facilitate “the complete defeat of Hamas in Gaza" as soon as possible. The Defense Minister stated that "if the hostage deal is not realized by the time President Trump takes office, a complete defeat of Hamas in Gaza must be brought about." Speaking in a security situation assessment held with Maj. Gen. Herzi Halevi (IDF Chief of Staff), Maj. Gen. (res.) Eyal Zamir (Director General of the Defense Ministry), Head of Military Intelligence, Head of Military Intelligence, Head of Military Intelligence, and Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon (the Defense Minister) emphasized that “the issue of releasing the hostages is at the top of the security establishment's priority list."
Katz also emphasized that “[Israel] must not be drawn into a war of attrition against Hamas in Gaza,” and he directed the IDF to indicate what issues might make it difficult to implement such a plan, such as humanitarian issues and other similar issues. He noted that the determination of a political solution for the administration of Gaza "is not relevant to the issue at hand and the activity that is currently required, because no Arab or other factor will take responsibility for managing civilian life in Gaza as long as Hamas is not completely crushed." He also noted that "the IDF is waging a heroic war and its soldiers are doing an amazing job, but at the same time, we must change the method of operation in order to eliminate Hamas and end the war in Gaza." He warned against a prolonged war that could exact a heavy toll without achieving a strategic victory: "We must not settle for a war of attrition that costs us dearly while failing to deliver the fruits of victory and the decisive defeat of Hamas," he said.
After more than 450 days since the October 7 Massacre, Hamas has well and truly been defeated as a military organization. Its upper echelons of both political and military leaders have been killed by the IDF. Its capability to operate holistically as an organization has disappeared. Nearly all of its stockpile of tens of thousands of rockets and missiles has been decimated from the air and from the ground. Its underground tunnel network used for command and control, weapons production and storage and other nefarious things, that was, at the beginning of the war, larger than the London Underground, lies in ruins. Its underground “Interstate Highways” that connect Gaza City in the north with Khan Yunis and Rafah in the south have been destroyed while the thousands of smaller tunnels that branch off of these superhighways have also been demolished.
And yet, the fighting goes on unabated. Hamas, while no longer operating as an organized army, still has thousands of operatives engaging the IDF in guerilla warfare. Guerillas hide out in the shells of empty buildings and in the remaining tunnels, and they try as best as they can to kill Israeli soldiers. They use sniper rifles, anti-tank missiles and rocket-propelled grenades, and their weapon of choice, explosives in the form of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) and booby-trapped houses. Yesterday, four IDF soldiers were killed when a massive IED blew up next to their HMMWV (Humvee). Since this past October, more than 80 IDF soldiers have been killed in Gaza, a rate of nearly one soldier each day. Hamas is not trying to defeat the IDF – they know that this is an impossible task. What they are trying to do is to cause sufficient Israeli casualties to convince the Israeli government that Hamas will never be defeated and to come to some sort of deal and to permanently leave Gaza, so that Hamas can rebuild its military presence.
The Gaza War has morphed into a War of Attrition. Israel cannot sustain this kind of war because of a combination of building public pressure – too many funerals are being aired on the nightly news combined with building global pressure. Enough is enough. Defense Minister Katz recognizes this and is looking for a way to quickly and decisively solve the problem. Out of the many solutions being aired in the newspapers, blogs, and social media, the solution with the greatest potential in my eyes, is the solution we will refer to as the “Segmentation Solution.”
The “Segmentation Solution” begins with the segmentation of the Gaza Strip by dividing it into many small, separate territorial cells, each cell having clear geographical demarcations. One such example is the Netzarim Corridor, which lies between Gaza City in the north and Nuseirat in the south. Israel took over the corridor in order to cut Gaza in half. The next step is to purge each of these territorial cells of terrorists and to turn them into sterile weapon-free and Hamas-free zones. This step would be performed with pinpoint and overwhelming force, as the IDF will be operating only in these cells such that it could concentrate its offensive power. Entry to any such territorial cell, once cleansed, would be permitted to any Gazan resident, contingent upon undergoing a physical check and a background check with the intelligence agencies. Repopulation will set the stage for the gradual rebuilding of Gaza. After one cell has been purged, the IDF will move on to the next one. In this way, within a few months, most of the territorial cells in the Gaza Strip would be clean and sterile and would have little to no residual IDF presence, reducing friction with the Gazans who have moved back to their homes in these cells. Israel would continue to operate according to the geographical logic of its choice, likely moving southwards from Beit Lahiya in the north to Rafah in the south. Meanwhile, in the territorial cells that have already been cleared and (at least partially) repopulated, new local Hamas-free governments would be established. Local government officials could rule without fear that Hamas would do them harm. Within a short period of time, Israel will be able to present to the world the first territorial cells that operate in this format and will thus demonstrate that there is such a thing as a "day after" without Hamas. Moving segment by segment, the Gaza Strip would slowly become a demilitarized zone that could work together with Israel. Schools would begin operating in these territorial cells with a new education program that replaces antisemitism and Jihad with coexistence, a system perhaps based on the Alternate Gaza Education System (AGES) proposed by USIEA. Civilian infrastructure will be established which will administer the cell, especially the distribution of humanitarian aid. Today, Hamas performs this role, raising its stature and power among the local population. These cells will be the antitheses of the areas where Hamas is still present. Israel will earn high marks in the international arena by advancing a solution that offers a path for long-term management of Gaza. And as an additional benefit, purging of cells will also enable the IDF to pinpoint the location of any hostages being hidden.
The “Segmentation Plan” achieves the two goals stated by the Minister of Defense: it facilitates the total defeat of Hamas, and it prevents the continuation of the current War of Attrition by enabling the IDF to concentrate its force in a way that makes resistance futile. Implementation of this plan will take time. While the casualty rate of soldiers will fall, the war will go on at a slower cadence than today. The Segmentation Plan requires patience and spirit from Israelis. The U.S. can also play a critical role by
(1) using its political weight to gain Israel the time it needs and
(2) to recognize, support, and work together with the new Gazan entities.
In this way, the two countries will march together until total victory, once thought of as an impossibility, has finally been achieved.
Good things,
Ari Sacher
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