On July 31, Israel assassinated Fuad Shukr, the Head of the military wing of Hezbollah and a close personal friend of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah. One day later, Israel reportedly assassinated Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the political wing of Hamas, while he was in Tehran for the inauguration of the new Iranian President. Both Hezbollah and Iran warned anyone who was willing to listen of their intent to avenge these killings. So for the past four weeks, Israelis have been waiting for the other boot to drop. The media has been adding fuel to the fire with repeated reports of “a response happening in the next day / week / month…” A popular meme in Israel stated that Hezbollah and Iran would strike within the next twenty-four hours; if this did not actually happen, then read this meme again tomorrow. Two weeks ago, both Hezbollah and Iran announced that they would hold off on any retaliatory strike until ongoing cease-fire negotiations with Hamas had concluded. If Hamas and Israel were to reach an agreement, then there would be no need for a retaliatory strike, or so they said. But if the negotiations were to, once again, come up empty, as they had repeatedly since November, then an “attack of previously unseen proportions” would surely be soon to follow. By last Friday, after Hamas had turned down an American bridging proposal, it appeared that this round of negotiations would suffer the same fate as the previous ones. Nevertheless, while the threat of an attack on Israeli soil seemed imminent, on Thursday the Israel Air Force (IAF) announced that it was approving vacation time for both its officers and enlisted men, a move that raised eyebrows. The timing could not have been worse.
On Sunday morning, I awoke early, looked at my alarm that told me it was 4:30 in the morning and turned over to go back to sleep. About ten minutes later, as I had almost successfully dozed off, I was rudely awakened by a thud, immediately followed by two more thuds. Just another Iron Dome interception, I thought. At least there was no air-raid siren. Because the night before, there was indeed a siren, at 1:30 am, no less. Sirens were sounded in the Arab towns of I’billin and Tamra, less than three miles away. Fortunately, that alarm was a false alarm. But when Sunday morning’s thuds continued unabated for five minutes, it was clear that something extraordinary was occurring. I turned on my mobile phone and clicked on the Telegram application, my go-to source for news. At 4:45, it was announced that “The Israel Air Force (IAF) had begun a wave of bombings in southern Lebanon and that sound of explosions can be well-heard all over the Galilee.” Indeed. One minute later, the IAF raid was termed as a “pre-emptive attack.” At 4:47, the IDF Spokesman, Danny Hagari, gave the following update: “We have detected preparations by the terrorist organization Hezbollah to launch missiles and rockets at the State of Israel. We are attacking proactively to remove the threat." Immediately afterwards, Hagari addressed the nation on live television. The explosions continued unabated for more than thirty minutes.
Following the IDF Spokesman’s announcement, instructions came fast and furious. First, the Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, signed a “Special Order” that would enable the Homefront Command authorities to devise, announce, and enforce rules that could save the lives of Israeli citizens in case of a Hezbollah response. A few minutes later, the Homefront Command announced draconian rules for all people living north of Rishon LeZion, a southern suburb of Tel Aviv. Citizens were ordered to remain near bomb-shelters. (The definition of “near” is a function of a location’s proximity to the border. In my hometown of Moreshet, we have about one minute’s warning). Day-camps were canceled. Indoor gatherings were limited to 300 people while outdoor gatherings were limited to 30 people. Ben Gurion airport was closed. Israel was battening down the hatches.
At 5:30, forty-five minutes after the IAF preemptive strike began, Hezbollah began firing back. Over the course of about two hours, more than 300 rockets, missiles, and suicide drones were fired at northern Israel. Hezbollah claims that they successfully hit a “sensitive military site” in the center of the country, which they later revealed to be an army intelligence base in northern Tel Aviv, but this has been denied by the IDF, and nobody in Tel Aviv saw or heard a drone, a rocket, or an explosion, further reducing the Hezbollah’s credibility. While Hezbollah claimed to be aiming for army bases, the results do not buttress their claims. Take, for example, the town of Acco, where one of my sons lives. While Acco is home to a sensitive navy base, one rocket fell a five-minute walk from my son’s house, which is on the other side of town, slightly injuring my grand-daughter’s kindergarten teacher.
Hezbollah’s response was child’s play compared to the extent of the IAF attack. According to army sources, the attack consisted of no less than one hundred aircraft releasing their munitions simultaneously and then repeated multiple times. The bombs that were used were all precision guided munitions that successfully struck their targets and only their targets. As proof of the IAF precision, Hezbollah did not announce even one casualty after the strike. The IAF targeted rocket and missile launchers, both above and below ground. These launchers were all loaded with rockets and missiles ready to be fired. Most of them were smaller short-range projectiles aimed at the north, but some of them were much larger and aimed at Tel Aviv, likely at the army intelligence base that Hezbollah claimed to hit. According to the IDF, Hezbollah’s zero hour was meant to occur at exactly 5:00 am. More than 6,000 Hezbollah rockets and missiles were destroyed, but more importantly, hundreds of launchers were also destroyed. This is critical because taking out one launcher means preventing the repeated future launch of ten to twenty missiles. In my calculation, the IAF expended between 300 and 400 tons of ordnance, a simply unheard of number.
At 7:00, the Hezbollah bombardment stopped, and they quickly announced that they had “successfully responded” to Shukr’s assassination. In reality, either their weapon stockpile had run low due to attrition from the IAF bombardment or they had been thrown into complete disarray. What is more likely is that it was a combination of the two factors.
One indication that Hezbollah had taken terrible losses of their prized rocket arsenal is the response of the Houthis, another Iranian proxy based in Yemen, a proxy that had experienced the power of the IAF in July when it destroyed their Port of Hudaida along with its dozens of precious oil tanks. The Houthis congratulated the Hezbollah Resistance in its glorious attack on the Zionist entity. (Use of the word “Israel” is forbidden). The Houthi response was eerily similar to the boasts of Iraqi spokesman Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf, better known as “Baghdad Bob,” who in the Second Gulf War in 2003 told of mounting American casualties and great Iraqi military victories, as the American Army was systematically destroying Iraq.
After the Hezbollah stopped shooting, within minutes everything began returning to normal. Within one hour, Ben Gurion Airport had reopened. Within four hours, the Homefront Commanded had rescinded their “draconian rules.” The country had gone back to normal – what we call “emergency routine” – except for areas lying within 10 miles from the border, which were ordered to continue abiding by the new orders. The IDF seemed to have no concern that Hezbollah would fire another barrage of rockets. It was nothing less than surreal. At 7:00 am, Israelis were being told “We’re all going to die!” and only five hours later, we were being told that there was still time to go to the beach with the family because the surf is up! To me it felt like emotional whiplash, but at the same time, it was just another day at the office.
As the day progressed, people began to express their emotions on social media. Broadly speaking, there were two predominant types of response. The first type, unsurprisingly, was happiness mingled with relief mingled with pride. The IAF had somehow managed to remove a threat that many had thought to be existential and that we recovered some of the deterrence that we had lost over the past year. The second type of response, no less understandable, was anger. The north has been under fire since October 8. More than 100,000 people have evacuated their homes, which are being destroyed one-by-one by Hezbollah anti-tank weapons. Lives and livelihoods are being destroyed. But suddenly, when Tel Aviv is threatened, the IDF wakes up. My son, the one that lives in Acco, forwarded me a meme he received. It was a picture of a Hezbollah drone upon which was written the words “The threat has been removed from the Center of the Country (i.e. Tel Aviv). You guys in the north can go back to your wartime routine.” Mayors and Heads of Northern Municipalities voiced their rage and their disgust. They wanted the IDF to do something along the lines of what they had done that morning months ago. They felt betrayed. Many of them announced that they would no longer cooperate with the government or with the army, whatever that means. Their frustration was palpable and justifiable.
One of the results of war is that it binds citizens together. There is a common enemy, a common threat, and a common goal. Operations like yesterday’s preemptive attack are things that we can all rally around. It would be a tragedy if that which is meant to bring us closer ends up driving us farther apart.
I hope our leaders are listening.
Good Things,
Ari Sacher
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