A ceasefire and a hostage/prisoner exchange was agreed to by Israel and Hamas on January 15, and came into effect on January 19. The ceasefire was brokered by Egypt and Qatar. Most of the negotiations took place in Qatar, a country that does not currently have diplomatic relations with Israel. A lesser number of negotiations took place in Cairo. A large number of high-ranking Israeli officials engaged in a sort of inverse “shuttle diplomacy,” where the mediators remained in two locations and the warring parties traveled back and forth between mediators.
Nitzan David Fuchs (NDF) is a senior geopolitical analyst at Infinity Investment House, consultant in the field to the Ministry of Defense, a lecturer and an author. He is most famous for his Hebrew podcast, called “The Great Game,” in which he analyzes global geopolitical conundrums. NDF can always be counted on to offer a line of sight that most people have never thought of. This week, he peers under the hood of the agreement hammered out between Israel and Hamas. But rather than analyzing the content and terms of the agreement, he takes a step back and asks a simple question: “How is it that Egypt and Qatar are still part of the game?”
Let me explain. Both Qatar and Egypt have supported Hamas, either directly or indirectly, above the table or below the table, since long before October 7.
Qatar: Qatari support for Hamas is overt:
Until November, Qatar sheltered Hamas leadership within its borders. Most prominent was Khaled Mashal, the Hamas envoy abroad. Mashal’s wealth is estimated at $2-5 billion, and he has lived a life of luxury in Doha for the past 10 years. He survived a botched assassination attempt by the Israeli Mossad in 1997 in Jordan. He faced harsh criticism during the war for urging Gazans to hold their ground while he himself moved between Qatar’s 5-star resort hotels. Ismail Haniyeh, Mashal’s predecessor, also lived in Qatar until his assassination by Israel in July 2024 in Tehran. Haniyeh also lived in the lap of luxury.
Qatar has until this day explicitly supported Hamas, including their right to retain sovereign power in Gaza. Qatar's education system has promoted antisemitic and anti-Israel content in kindergartens, schools, universities, and summer camps, conveying that Jews are “enemies of Allah” and presenting Palestine as stretching from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, essentially negating Israel's existence.
The Al-Jazeera network, one of the most vociferously anti-Israel media networks in the world, is based in Qatar and receives funding from the government of Qatar, making it a tool for Qatari projection of soft power.
Egypt: Egypt’s sin has been one of neglect. For years, Egypt has turned a blind eye as Hamas built a network of tunnels underneath the Philadelphi Corridor connecting Gaza with the Sinai Peninsula, fondly referred to in these parts as “Al-Kaedastan.” These tunnels served as conduits through which Hamas smuggled weapons, ammunition and explosives from Iran and North Korea into Gaza. Egypt could not have been unaware of these tunnels – the Egyptian Army is deployed in large numbers near the Gazan border. Either Army officers were taking bribes from Hamas operatives or the Egyptian government was giving its implicit approval.
Both Egypt and Qatar support Hamas. How, then, can they be considered fair brokers? Further, both countries have a vested strategic interest in Hamas remaining in control in Gaza. Hamas gives Egypt political leverage over Israel, and it amplifies Egyptian diplomatic importance in its ability to broker between Hamas and Israel. For Qatar, support for Hamas is its way of showing that it supports the Palestinian cause, an ever-popular topic in the Arab world, increasing its influence within the Middle East and with the U.S. Removing Hamas from the equation would be a blow to both the Egyptians and the Qataris.
Qatar has worked long and hard to refine its global image and to increase its influence in the West. In 2011, Qatar purchased the prestigious Paris St Germain (PSG) soccer club. It has donated millions to universities (some accuse Qatar of fomenting pro-Hamas riots on university campuses around the world), and has situated itself as a broker in crises around the world, most notably in the Ukraine-Russia War. These investments have helped to deflect pressure being applied to Qatar at the beginning of the October 7 war as well as accusations that it was collaborating with Hamas.
NDF accuses Israel of misplaying its hand against Qatar. Rather than insisting on the replacement of Qatar and Egypt as brokers with Hamas, Israel has not only made its peace with the situation, it has promised to allow it to continue. According to media reports, Qatar will take a large part in the rebuilding of Gaza. It is highly conceivable that Qatari money will continue to finance Hamas and its institutions, cementing its influence on Gaza in the near term and likely in the long term, as well. And after the IDF retreat from the Philadelphi corridor, scheduled for Phase 2 of the ceasefire with Hamas, Egypt will once again retain ownership over the Gaza-Sinai border, including all the financial benefits therein.
Truth be told, Israel can claim that there is no other choice. These were the cards we were dealt – no other country has offered to broker the ceasefire with Hamas. Would Israel rather see Turkey and Iran, two countries vying for Middle Eastern hegemony, leading the negotiations? NDF asserts that this claim misses the point completely. Israel could have and should have applied force on Qatar and Egypt, making them pay for their brokership and for any concessions that Israel would have to make to Hamas. Qatari normalization with Israel and joint IDF-Egypt control of the Philadelphi Corridor come to mind. The least Israel could have done was to insist that Qatar and Egypt apply pressure to Hamas to meet Israel in the middle. This clearly did not happen, as Hamas has not substantially changed their bargaining position since October 7. Simultaneously, Israel could have begun ramping up the pressure on Gaza, perhaps by implementing the Segmentation Plan discussed last week in this column, and warning Hamas that if it did not bend to Israeli demands – say, buffer zones and IDF presence on the Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors and deportation of Hamas leadership – then the pressure would be raised even further.
This did not happen. Israel essentially backed into current cease fire, albeit with a certain amount of encouragement from the Trump Administration. Israel accepted essentially all of the directives issued by the “honest brokers,” and it certainly appears that this will remain the modus vivendi for the near foreseeable future. Qatar and Egypt will continue to solidify their hold on Gaza, and Israel will continue to “benefit” from it in the next round.
And make no mistake, there will be a next round.
Good things,
Ari Sacher
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